Gold vs. Stocks vs. Real Estate: Best Inflation Hedges in Pakistan Over 10 Years
Pakistan’s inflation has swung from under 5% to a peak near 38% in the past decade. Savers who held rupees in the bank saw buying power shrink in the bad years. Gold, shares and property are the three assets people most often turn to for protection. This guide compares how gold and the KSE-100 performed since 2016, what we can and cannot say about property, and what the numbers imply for real (after-inflation) returns.
This is general information, not financial advice. Past returns do not predict future returns. Several figures below are annual averages or approximations, and the inflation series could only be partly verified. These limits are stated where they apply.
First, What Inflation Did
Verified in our research: average CPI inflation was 4.49% in FY25 and 7.05% in FY26 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, as reported). Year-on-year inflation then jumped to 11.1% in June 2026 from 3.2% a year earlier. One summary page also reports a peak of 37.97% in 2023.
We could not retrieve a full, sourced FY17 to FY26 series from a primary source. Using the fiscal-year averages as commonly reported by the PBS (recalled, not re-checked against the PBS for this article), the cumulative price level rose by roughly 2.8 times over FY17 to FY26. Treat “about 2.8x” as an estimate and verify it against the PBS before quoting it. The real-return comparisons below use this figure, so they carry the same caveat.
Gold: PKR per Tola
Yearly average price of 24K gold per tola, from one price archive that publishes daily records:
| Year | Average 24K price per tola (PKR) | Change vs prior year |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 57,529 | |
| 2016 | 57,252 | -0.5% |
| 2017 | 55,997 | -2.2% |
| 2018 | 63,914 | +14.1% |
| 2019 | 82,065 | +28.4% |
| 2020 | 98,166 | +19.6% |
| 2021 | 102,175 | +4.1% |
| 2022 | 127,067 | +24.4% |
| 2023 | 172,934 | +36.1% |
| 2024 | 248,756 | +43.8% |
| 2025 | 356,798 | +43.4% |
| 2026 (to date) | 434,760 | +21.9% |
On 1 November 2026 the same source recorded PKR 410,000 per tola. That is below the 2026 average, so gold has already pulled back this year. Using these averages, the 2016 average to the 2026 year-to-date average is about 7.6 times, or about 22% a year compounded. Against the 1 November spot price it is about 7.2 times. Averages smooth out daily moves, so an actual buyer’s result depends on the exact dates.
Gold in rupees rises both when the world gold price rises and when the rupee weakens, which is why it has tracked Pakistan’s inflation closely in the bad years. It pays no income, and retail buyers face a spread between buying and selling prices and, for jewellery, making charges. Use our gold tola calculator and the guide to gold investment in Pakistan.
Stocks: the KSE-100
| Year-end | KSE-100 close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 32,816 | +2.1% |
| 2016 | 47,807 | +45.7% |
| 2017 | 40,471 | -15.3% |
| 2018 | 37,067 | -8.4% |
| 2019 | 40,735 | +9.9% |
| 2020 | 43,755 | +7.4% |
| 2021 | 44,596 | +1.9% |
| 2022 | 40,420 | -9.4% |
| 2023 | 62,451 | +54.5% |
| 2024 | 115,127 | +84.4% |
| 2025 | 174,054 | +51.2% |
The index stood at 164,467 on 27 October 2026. From end-2015, that is about 5.0 times, or roughly 16% a year in price terms, before dividends. From end-2016 to end-2022 the index was effectively flat to lower, a six-year stretch in which inflation compounded heavily, so shares did not protect real wealth over that window. The recovery came from 2023. Equities hedge inflation over long periods when companies can pass higher costs to customers, but the path is volatile and timing matters a great deal. See PSX performance over the last 5 years and the dividend investing guide.
Real Estate: What We Can Say
We could not find a reliable national house price index for 2016 to 2026, so we do not give a 10-year property return. What the sources support:
- Rental income is real and measurable. Global Property Guide reports Q1 2026 gross yields of 7.16% in Islamabad, 7.14% in Karachi, 6.64% in Rawalpindi and 5.74% in Lahore (national average 6.67%). Net yields are typically 1.5 to 2 points lower.
- In the year to Q1 2019, nationwide house prices rose 5.05% in rupee terms but fell about 4% after inflation, so property did not always keep pace in the short run.
- Land values reportedly rose 2.6 times from 2011 to 2018 (measure not stated).
Property offers a mix of income and a physical asset, but it is illiquid, expensive to trade and taxed on purchase and sale. For the tax and liquidity detail, see PSX vs. Real Estate in Pakistan.
Side-by-Side: Nominal and Real
| Gold | KSE-100 (price only) | Real estate | Estimated CPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start point | 2016 average, PKR 57,252 | End-2015, 32,816 | No reliable index | FY17 to FY26 |
| End point | 2026 average to date PKR 434,760 (spot 410,000 on 1 Nov) | 27 Oct 2026, 164,467 | ||
| Approximate multiple | 7.2x to 7.6x | 5.0x | Unverified | About 2.8x (estimate) |
| Approximate compounded annual rate | About 22% | About 16% | Unverified | About 11% |
| Real multiple (divide by 2.8) | About 2.6x to 2.7x | About 1.8x | Unverified | 1.0x |
| Income | None | Dividends (not included above) | Rent, about 4.5% to 5.5% net | |
| Biggest risk | Price falls from a peak, spreads | Long flat or losing periods | Illiquidity, title disputes, transaction costs | |
| Liquidity | High (jewellers, bullion dealers) | High | Low |
Start dates differ slightly (an annual average versus a year-end close), so the comparison is indicative, not exact. Dividends would lift the shares column. Rental income would lift property.
Reading the Results
- Gold was the strongest hedge on this evidence, but its gains came mostly in 2018 to 2025. A buyer in the wrong year could still sit on a loss for a while: the 2015 to 2017 averages were flat.
- Shares protected wealth only after a long wait. Both rupee debasement and the 2023 to 2025 rally helped, but investors who bought in 2016 and exited before 2023 lost purchasing power.
- Property’s protection is plausible but unproven by hard data here. Rent tends to rise with inflation, which supports income. Capital values are harder to track, and transaction costs reduce net gains.
- No single asset won in every year. Gold and equities do not move together all the time, which is the case for holding more than one.
Taxes That Reduce Your Real Return
- Shares: 15% capital gains tax for a filer on shares bought after 1 July 2024, and generally 15% on dividends. Higher for non-filers. See the CGT guide.
- Property: one 2026-27 summary reports 1.25% advance tax on the buyer and 2.75% on the seller for filers, and 15% CGT on gains for property acquired after 1 July 2024. Sources conflict on details, so check the FBR.
- Gold: we did not research the tax treatment of gain on physical gold, so we do not state a rate. Ask a tax adviser.
See also the filer vs non-filer withholding tax rate card.
Final Thoughts
Over the past decade, both gold and the KSE-100 comfortably beat the estimated rise in consumer prices, with gold ahead on the figures we could verify. The ride was uneven: shares spent six years going nowhere, and gold has already dipped from its 2026 average. Property remains the least measurable of the three, so do not rely on anyone’s single “average appreciation” claim. A mix, sized to your horizon and your need for cash, is easier to defend than a bet on one asset.
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About Aisha Sherjeel
Aisha Sherjeel is a personal finance writer specializing in retail banking, international account setups, and overseas remittance solutions. She breaks down complex banking regulations, Roshan Digital Accounts, and newcomer financial programs into clear, step-by-step guides. Aisha’s work focuses on empowering Pakistani expatriates and local savers with actionable insights to navigate modern banking options safely and efficiently.
Disclaimer: The content on PakGains is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Financial markets, cryptocurrencies, and banking services involve inherent risk. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial professional before making financial decisions.